Trump’s Iran Shift Complicates Netanyahu’s Election Strategy

Donald Trump’s current push for an agreement with Iran is, in the writer’s view, weakening both Israel’s position and Trump’s own standing. The article says Trump has moved from threatening force to seeking a deal, after more than two months of pressure on Iran, and now appears eager for an accord. That shift, it argues, has made Iran look stronger and Trump look hesitant, even though the author says his past record with Israel remains highly favorable.

The piece recalls Trump’s first term achievements for Israel, including leaving the Iran nuclear deal, moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, advancing the Abraham Accords, and easing U.S. pressure on Jewish settlement expansion in the West Bank. In his second term, it says, he ended restrictions on arms sales imposed by Joe Biden, backed Israel during wartime, supported a mass emigration plan from Gaza, helped secure a hostage deal that did not require an Israeli withdrawal, and joined Israel in direct attacks on Iran, including B-2 bombers striking nuclear sites.

The problem for Benjamin Netanyahu, the article says, is political as well as strategic. Trump was supposed to be a central figure in Netanyahu’s election campaign, including a September meeting in Washington and a possible Trump visit to Israel close to election day. Netanyahu had even asked Trump to postpone a visit from Independence Day, when he received the Israel Prize, to a date nearer the vote. But as Trump looks more willing to strike a bargain with Iran, the article says, his value as a campaign asset is falling and the “strong together” message is losing force.

That same election campaign is also shaping the contest inside the anti-Netanyahu bloc, especially around Gadi Eisenkot. The article says Eisenkot is under attack from Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Netanyahu, but Bennett is losing momentum in the polls while Eisenkot is gaining status as the more serious alternative. A recent survey of Likud supporters found that if Netanyahu left to form a new party, 43% would follow him, 20% would stay with Likud and its new leader, nearly 12% would back Eisenkot, and 6% would move to Avigdor Liberman. The article says Netanyahu’s camp is now preparing for a direct fight with Eisenkot rather than Bennett, while Eisenkot rejects accusations that he weakened the army or adopted a soft line toward Hamas.