Trump’s Strategic Zigzags on Iran Aim to Delay Until Midterm Elections

Former President Donald Trump’s recent fluctuating stance on Iran is a calculated strategy to buy time until the U.S. midterm elections in November and to wait for Iran’s economy and regime to collapse. According to Dr. Liraz Margalit, Trump’s actions are not signs of losing control but part of a broader plan to manage multiple audiences simultaneously.

Trump’s threats of military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure temporarily raise oil prices, which harms his political base and alarms Gulf states. However, a real attack risks escalating conflict and is unpopular domestically. Instead, Trump uses these threats to pressure Iran while quickly shifting to announce progress in negotiations, such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipments, which causes oil prices to drop sharply.

This approach avoids a comprehensive nuclear deal, which would require lengthy negotiations and concessions, and instead seeks limited Iranian concessions to lower fuel prices in the U.S. and portray Trump as a strong leader who forced Iran to negotiate. The zigzag messaging serves four audiences: reassuring Israel and hawks that strikes remain possible, signaling Iran to offer concessions, calming Gulf allies by avoiding regional war, and convincing American voters that Trump is both tough and a peacemaker.

However, this balancing act is fragile because these audiences observe each other. Iran’s consistent denials of requesting a ceasefire undermine Trump’s narrative of a victorious mercy, exposing the strategy’s vulnerability. Iran’s tactic of denying only the ceasefire request but not other details effectively dismantles Trump’s story without escalating tensions.

In sum, Trump’s Iran policy is a complex mechanism designed to maintain political advantage amid a costly and unpopular conflict, with the ticking clock set to the November midterms rather than the Iranian nuclear timeline.