Foreign Powers Likely to Support Netanyahu Coalition to Maintain Israeli Political Status Quo

In the lead-up to Israel's 2026 elections, concerns about foreign interference have intensified, with experts warning that hostile powers such as Russia, Iran, and Qatar are expected to attempt influence operations. These efforts typically exploit societal divisions and aim to deepen political polarization, weakening democratic institutions and destabilizing governments. However, contrary to common assumptions that adversaries would seek to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, analysis suggests they may actually favor preserving his coalition.

This is because Netanyahu's current administration has led to Israel's deepest diplomatic isolation in decades, deteriorating relations with Western allies and increasing international criticism, especially among younger populations in Europe and the United States. Polls indicate a significant rise in negative perceptions of Israel abroad, alongside unprecedented legal and diplomatic pressures. Hostile states view this weakened position as advantageous, preferring a fragmented and unstable Israel over one that restores alliances and internal cohesion.

Domestically, foreign actors are aware of Israel's internal fractures surrounding judicial reforms, military service, religion-state relations, settlements, and Jewish-Arab tensions. They recognize that Netanyahu's coalition depends on ultra-Orthodox support, which fuels societal discord and emigration. These conditions serve adversaries' interests by undermining Israel's strategic standing and democratic resilience.

The methods of interference are sophisticated, involving coordinated social media campaigns, AI-generated content, deepfakes, and fake accounts designed to inflame emotions and mobilize voters on the right by amplifying fears and conspiracies. While Israel's paper ballot system limits direct vote tampering, manipulating public opinion remains a significant threat.

Experts argue that if Israel's internal security agency, the Shin Bet, maintained full independence from political influence, it could more effectively counter these threats. The article concludes that foreign powers' interference is almost certain, but their goal is to sustain the current government to keep Israel divided and diplomatically isolated, rather than to empower opposition forces.