Likud Faces Potential Upheaval as Gadi Eizenkot and Gilad Erdan Challenge Netanyahu Ahead of 2026 Elections

The Likud party is increasingly concerned about a possible political upheaval reminiscent of the 2006 elections, when Benjamin Netanyahu suffered a significant defeat. In 2006, the party collapsed from 38 to 12 seats following Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan and the formation of Kadima, which won 29 seats. Additionally, Amir Peretz’s Labor Party surged to 19 seats, drawing substantial support from former Likud voters, particularly in peripheral cities and lower socioeconomic areas.

Today, the Likud views Gadi Eizenkot, a former IDF Chief of Staff with a unique background, as a significant threat. Eizenkot’s appeal crosses traditional political and ethnic lines, making him a formidable candidate who resonates with religious and traditional voters. Likud has shifted its attack strategy away from Eizenkot, focusing instead on Yair Golan, whom they believe is more vulnerable to criticism.

Meanwhile, Gilad Erdan’s recent announcement to run has surprised many. Unlike other centrist politicians, Erdan is a strong Likud figure who could attract right-wing voters disillusioned with Netanyahu but unwilling to support centrist parties. Erdan aims to build a party that could secure nine to ten seats, potentially becoming a kingmaker or even contending for prime minister if the political blocs are fragmented.

Although current polls do not support Erdan’s ambitious goals, Likud fears he may act as a proxy for Avigdor Lieberman, potentially siphoning votes and influencing coalition dynamics. Channel 14’s ongoing criticism of Erdan reflects internal tensions within the right-wing media landscape.

The entrance of Erdan and the rise of Eizenkot highlight the significant challenges Likud faces in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, with the 2026 elections shaping up to be a critical test for Netanyahu’s leadership and the party’s future direction.