Likud Faces Potential Upheaval as Gadi Eizenkot and Gilad Erdan Challenge Netanyahu Ahead of 2026 Elections

The Likud party is bracing for a possible political upheaval reminiscent of the 2006 elections, as former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot and former Minister Gilad Erdan emerge as significant challengers to Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the 2026 elections. Netanyahu recalls the 2006 elections as a political disaster when Likud plummeted from 38 to 12 seats, largely due to Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan, the party split, and the rise of Kadima, which won 29 seats. That election also saw Labor leader Amir Peretz attract many former Likud voters, especially from peripheral and lower-income areas, weakening Likud's traditional base.

Eizenkot's background breaks traditional political molds: a Moroccan-Israeli from Eilat, a Golani fighter turned Chief of Staff, and a father who lost close family members in war. His calm and respectful demeanor toward religious communities makes him a unique threat to Netanyahu, who is unsettled by Eizenkot's appeal. Likud has shifted its attack focus from Eizenkot to former Deputy Chief of Staff Yair Golan, believing Golan is easier to discredit and that undermining him could also weaken Eizenkot.

Gilad Erdan's recent announcement to run surprised many, as he is a strong Likud figure who could have waited for Netanyahu's departure. His strategy aims to capture disillusioned Likud voters unwilling to support centrist parties, positioning himself as a right-wing alternative to Netanyahu. Erdan hopes to secure nine to ten seats, potentially becoming a kingmaker or even a prime ministerial contender if the political blocs are fragmented.

Though current polls do not support Erdan's ambitions, Likud fears he could act as a proxy for Avigdor Lieberman, siphoning votes and enabling a new right-wing coalition. Channel 14's criticism of Erdan reflects internal tensions, as some see his rise as a threat to Netanyahu's hold on power. Both Eizenkot's strengthening position and Erdan's entry highlight the significant challenges Likud faces after the October 7 massacre, signaling a potentially transformative 2026 election cycle.