Iran Expert Eliyahu Yosseian Sees Strategic Logic Behind Trump’s Iran Policy

Eliyahu Yosseian, an expert on Iran, argues that President Donald Trump’s seemingly erratic approach to Iran is a calculated strategy benefiting both the United States and Israel. Despite daily contradictory statements from Trump regarding Iran, Yosseian contends these are not signs of weakness but deliberate moves that yield significant economic and security advantages for the U.S. He explains that Iran’s reactions to Trump’s policy can be divided into three groups: the Iranian opposition abroad, who feel deep disappointment; internal regime opponents, who are weary of Trump’s inconsistent rhetoric; and regime supporters, who interpret Trump’s behavior as a sign of American weakness and Iranian resilience.

Yosseian highlights that economically, the U.S. profits from the tensions, as American companies secure contracts to repair Persian Gulf infrastructure damaged by Iranian attacks, and U.S. arms and oil companies benefit from the instability. He notes that the unpredictability of Trump’s moves complicates Iran’s ability to anticipate U.S. actions, which is a strategic advantage. Yosseian believes Trump’s approach is intentional and backed by advisors from economic, oil, and defense sectors, rather than random or erratic behavior.

Regarding Iranian opposition groups inside Iran, Yosseian says they express frustration and apathy on social media, sometimes cursing Trump for not intervening more decisively. He envisions a scenario where the apparent zigzagging ends abruptly with a surprise U.S.-Israeli strike on hundreds of Iranian sites, eliminating key regime figures. Such an event could reinvigorate internal opposition and foster cooperation against the regime.

Yosseian assesses that the Iranian regime believes Trump’s hands are tied until the U.S. midterm elections and is therefore hardening its stance. He asserts Iran will not relinquish its enriched uranium or nuclear capabilities, even after targeted killings of leaders like Qasem Soleimani. The ongoing conflict will likely continue, with Iran enhancing missile production and Israel and the U.S. preparing for possible military actions. Yosseian concludes that despite the fluid situation, Iran will not abandon its nuclear ambitions, and the region remains on edge.