China Plans to Supply Up to 400 Shoulder-Fired Missiles to Iran, Escalating US-China Tensions

China is reportedly preparing to deliver between 300 and 400 shoulder-fired air defense missiles to Iran, marking a significant shift in Beijing's cautious approach to arms sales to Tehran. Until now, China has supported Iran diplomatically and supplied dual-use components but avoided direct sales of advanced weaponry. The deal, valued at $60 to $70 million, involves QW-12 and FN-16 missile systems designed to target helicopters, drones, and low-flying aircraft. The first shipment is expected within weeks, potentially transported via air from western China through Pakistan to Iran.

This move challenges previous US warnings, including President Donald Trump's recent threats that arms sales to Iran by China or Russia would have severe consequences. Trump claimed Chinese President Xi Jinping had promised not to sell weapons to Iran, a claim Beijing denies. Experts suggest China's motivation is strategic, aiming to counter US dominance in the Middle East and distract Washington from other regions like Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific.

China's cautious past policy balanced its support for Iran with maintaining relations with Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, supplying defensive missile systems to Iran could complicate US military operations in the region by strengthening Iran's air defenses, which have been degraded by US and Israeli strikes. Analysts also speculate China may be testing its missile technology against US systems or using the deal as leverage in broader US-China negotiations, especially regarding arms sales to Taiwan.

Despite the risks, China benefits from Iranian oil supplies and strategic trade routes linked to its Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing seeks to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for energy shipments while encouraging Iran to tie down US forces in the Gulf. The arms transfer, if confirmed, represents a notable departure from China's previous restraint and could have significant diplomatic and security repercussions.

Key figures include Yuval Winerv, a China expert, who emphasizes the deal reflects Beijing's interest in opposing the US-led global order rather than deep allegiance to Iran. The shipment route through Pakistan, which denies involvement, highlights the covert nature of the transfer. The development underscores rising tensions between the US and China over influence in the Middle East and arms proliferation.