Iran's Leadership Divided Over Spending $7 Billion Oil Revenue on Economy or Military

A sharp dispute has emerged within Iran's leadership over how to allocate approximately $7 billion expected from recent oil sales. The moderate camp, led by President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, argues that the funds should be directed toward economic recovery and calming domestic unrest, which they view as the regime's greatest threat. They emphasize addressing the energy crisis and improving citizens' conditions to prevent further protests.

Conversely, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) faction insists the money must be invested in restoring Iran's missile capabilities, advancing the nuclear program, including the site at Mount Machouh, and strengthening proxy forces across the Middle East. They oppose direct financial aid to the public but support easing religious restrictions, as seen in recent relaxations on hijab enforcement in cities like Isfahan.

This internal conflict reflects broader tensions in Tehran as the regime grapples with economic hardship exacerbated by recent US and Israeli military actions. The oil revenue window was secured through a temporary agreement with the United States, providing a rare financial boost amid ongoing sanctions and instability. The coming weeks will reveal which faction prevails in shaping Iran's strategic priorities amid mounting domestic and external pressures.