Likud Doubts Grow Over Holding Primaries Amid Security Concerns and Tight Schedule

Despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent statements supporting the democratic value of holding Likud primaries for the upcoming Knesset elections, skepticism is rising within the party about whether these internal elections will actually take place. Senior party officials privately express doubt, citing two main reasons. First, the tight timeline leaves a shrinking window for organizing the complex logistical preparations required for nationwide primaries. A party source noted that the current silence from the leadership may indicate a decision has already been made but not yet announced.

Second, Netanyahu's condition that the primaries depend on the security situation is seen by many as a convenient escape clause. Officials interpret this as a way for Netanyahu to avoid holding primaries if the ongoing security tensions or conflicts intensify, arguing that focusing on party elections during such times would be irresponsible.

Given these factors, the likelihood is increasing that Likud will adopt an alternative selection method involving a "arranging committee" composed of influential local leaders such as mayors affiliated with the party. This approach would bypass the direct vote of approximately 140,000 party members, reduce costs and chaos, and maintain control within Netanyahu's close circle. While some current Knesset members fear this could harm their reelection chances without broad grassroots support, others view it as necessary to preserve party stability during a crisis.

For now, senior Likud figures await an official announcement, but the prevailing sentiment inside the party headquarters is that the traditional primaries will probably not be held. Many members are preparing as if primaries will occur, engaging with activists and running campaigns, yet they acknowledge these efforts might be in vain if the final candidate list is decided by Netanyahu and his allies. Netanyahu reportedly prioritizes shaping the party list carefully due to Likud's poor polling and aims to exclude candidates he believes could harm the party's electoral success in 2026.