China Turns Putin Dependent Amid Ukraine War and Western Sanctions

The ongoing war in Ukraine and Western sanctions have dramatically shifted the power balance between Moscow and Beijing, making Russia economically dependent on China. Once admiring Russian President Vladimir Putin as a role model during his 2013 visit to Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping now holds the upper hand as Russia relies heavily on the Chinese market to sustain its war economy.

China plays a crucial role by purchasing Russian oil and supplying essential industrial goods, while trade with Russia accounts for less than 4% of China's total trade volume, highlighting China's dominant position. This dynamic was evident during Putin's visit to China in May, when Moscow sought approval for the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project intended to replace lost European exports. Xi imposed strict conditions, including selling gas at domestic Russian prices, which Moscow rejected, causing the project to stall.

Currently, nearly 40% of Russia's foreign trade is with China, and about 33% of Russia's export revenues come from the Chinese market. This economic dependence means Putin needs Xi far more than the reverse. Beijing is strategically preparing for the post-Putin era by cultivating relationships with Russia's future political, bureaucratic, and elite leaders to secure Chinese interests regardless of who leads Russia next.