Russia Becomes Dependent on China Amid Ukraine War and Western Sanctions

Four years of war in Ukraine and increasing economic isolation from Western countries have significantly shifted the power dynamics between Moscow and Beijing. According to an extensive Wall Street Journal investigation, Russia, once regarded as a senior and respected partner of China, has gradually become the weaker side in their relationship. Russian President Vladimir Putin now operates from a position of seeking patronage from Chinese President Xi Jinping.

A key turning point occurred in May during Putin's 14th visit to China since Xi took power. Putin sought approval for the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline, crucial for Russia to replace lost European markets. However, Chinese officials made it clear that the deal would only proceed if Russia sold gas to China at subsidized prices similar to domestic rates. Beijing demanded Russia subsidize the project and instructed them not to revisit the issue until conditions changed. Putin left China having signed 42 agreements and joint statements but without securing the gas deal he aimed for. Business sources described Xi's reception of Putin as that of an emperor receiving a visitor and then sending him home.

This situation contrasts sharply with their first meeting in 2013, when Xi called Putin his "role model" for demonstrating great power despite an energy-dependent economy. Currently, China accounts for about 40% of Russia's total trade, up from roughly 10% a decade ago, and represents one-third of Russian export revenues. Conversely, Russia makes up less than 4% of China's trade. Chinese goods, from cars to heavy machinery, flood the Russian market, harming local producers and prompting Moscow to raise tariffs on Chinese vehicles amid domestic pressure.

Russia's dependence on China extends to geopolitical and financial arenas. Putin recently agreed to Beijing's demand to make the Chinese yuan the primary currency of a regional development bank in Central Asia, despite Russia's decade-long resistance fearing loss of influence in the former Soviet space. Meanwhile, China's unease grows over North Korea's increasing involvement in the Ukraine conflict and troop deployment, as Beijing views Pyongyang as its exclusive sphere of influence. Xi rejected Putin's secret proposal for a Russia-China-North Korea summit and instead made a rare visit to Pyongyang in June to assert China's dominance in the region.

Despite Kremlin rhetoric about a "partnership without limits and on equal terms," experts believe the Ukraine war has given Beijing significant leverage to make Russia more dependent. China now emerges not only as a partner but also as a source of power and modernization for Moscow.