China Asserts Dominance Over Russia Amid Ukraine War, Undermining Putin

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Russia has become heavily dependent on China, shifting the power balance between the two nations. In May, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing for the 14th time since Xi Jinping came to power, aiming to secure Chinese approval for the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project, crucial after losing much of its European energy market. However, Chinese officials firmly rejected the proposal unless Russia sold gas at domestic Chinese prices, effectively requiring Moscow to subsidize the deal. Beijing also instructed Russia not to raise the issue again until terms changed. Despite signing 42 agreements during the visit, the gas pipeline deal was notably absent.

Observers describe Xi's reception of Putin as that of a sovereign hosting a guest, highlighting the shift from past mutual respect to Chinese dominance. While China continues to deepen its strategic support for Russia, including discounted oil purchases, military components, and financial infrastructure to circumvent Western sanctions, it carefully avoids public humiliation of Putin. Behind the scenes, Beijing demands concessions and exerts control, mindful of historical Sino-Soviet tensions.

Trade figures underscore the imbalance: in 2013, China accounted for only 10% of Russia's foreign trade, with Europe dominant; today, China represents nearly 40% of Russian trade and a third of its export revenues, while Russia makes up less than 4% of China's trade. Chinese goods have flooded the Russian market, prompting Moscow to impose tariffs to protect local industries.

China's influence extends beyond economics. It has persuaded Russia to accept the Chinese yuan as the main currency for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization regional development bank, a move Russia resisted for over a decade. Additionally, Beijing opposes Russia's military cooperation with North Korea and rejected Putin's proposal for a trilateral summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Instead, Xi visited Pyongyang himself, signaling China's primacy over North Korea.

China is also cultivating ties with Russian elites beyond Putin, preparing for a post-Putin era and potentially undermining his standing with his key ally. Experts suggest China aims to transform Russia into a more dependent, closely integrated partner that views China as a model for progress and leadership.