China Asserts Dominance Over Russia Amid Ukraine War and Energy Disputes

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Russia has become heavily dependent on China, shifting the power balance between the two nations. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing in May, marking his 14th meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping since Xi took office. However, the visit exposed Russia's subordinate position, as China rejected Russia's key request to advance the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project unless Russia sold gas at domestic Chinese prices, effectively requiring Moscow to subsidize the deal.

Despite signing 42 agreements during the visit, the gas pipeline deal was notably absent, signaling China's firm stance. German businessman Jörg Wuttke described the meeting as Xi receiving Putin like a "king in his castle" before sending him home, highlighting the shift in dynamics. While China continues to support Russia with discounted oil purchases, military components, and financial infrastructure to circumvent Western sanctions, it maintains a public facade of equality while privately demanding concessions.

Trade figures underscore this imbalance: in 2013, China accounted for just 10% of Russia's foreign trade, with Europe as the main partner. Today, nearly 40% of Russian trade is with China, which represents less than 4% of China's trade. This growing dependence has led to an influx of cheap Chinese goods in Russia, prompting Moscow to impose measures to protect local industries.

China's influence extends beyond economics. Beijing has persuaded Moscow to accept the Chinese yuan as the main currency for a regional development bank under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a move Russia previously opposed. Additionally, China has expressed concerns over Russia's military cooperation with North Korea and rejected Putin's proposal for a trilateral summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, opting instead for Xi to visit Pyongyang himself, asserting China's primacy over North Korea.

China is also cultivating ties with influential Russian figures beyond Putin, preparing for a post-Putin era and potentially deepening Russia's reliance on Beijing. Experts suggest China aims to transform Russia into a more dependent state that looks to China as a model and source of progress.