Why China and Russia Stand to Gain from a US-Iran Deal
The war between the United States and Iran has created an unusual alignment in which Washington, Tehran, Moscow and Beijing all have reasons to want a ceasefire. China and Russia opposed the fighting from the start, and both see a possible US-Iran agreement as serving their own strategic and economic interests, even if for different reasons.
China’s main concern is oil. Over recent years, Iranian crude grew from about 10% of China’s oil imports in 2023 to a peak of roughly 15% in March last year, thanks to an extensive sanctions-evasion network involving tankers near Kharg Island, disabled AIS trackers, ship-to-ship transfers in the waters of Oman, Malaysia and Singapore, falsified documents, and payment in yuan. The war sharply reduced supplies, with exports to China falling from 1.38 million barrels a day at the start of the operation to about 800,000 within a month, and then to 300,000 barrels a day after Trump’s May blockade. Reports also said four sanctioned Iranian ships returned from China’s Gaolan port in April carrying material used to make solid rocket fuel, and CNN said US intelligence believes China may send Iran man-portable air-defense missiles through third countries.
A ceasefire would help Beijing by restoring access to Iranian oil and easing pressure on energy prices. If sanctions are lifted in a new deal, Chinese firms could also move into Iran’s reconstruction, which Tehran says will require $270 billion, and China has already shown it will invest when conditions permit, as with CNPC’s $600 million South Pars gas project after the JCPOA.
Russia also has economic and military reasons to favor a deal, especially one that allows uranium enrichment. Moscow supplies nuclear fuel to Bushehr, has Russian scientists embedded in Iran’s nuclear program, and last year signed a $25 billion agreement to build new nuclear reactors. Analyst Anna Nemkova said the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz also benefited Russia by boosting its energy-power status, while Tehran still needs Russian S-300 and Buk air-defense systems and may rearm soon. Iran could in turn gain from renewed drone sales to Russia, though Moscow has reduced dependence by building a drone factory about 950 kilometers from Moscow that produced around 66,000 units last year for the war in Ukraine. Bilateral trade remains modest, at $1.1 billion in the first five months of the Iranian year and $2.5 billion for the full previous year, compared with much larger Iran-China trade.
