Did China Help Rescue Iran From Collapse? A New Analysis of Trump’s Iran Deal

In a commentary published after several days of confusion, the writer says the current understanding between President Donald Trump and Iran rests on two narrow principles, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to free shipping and preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump, the article says, keeps repeating those goals while pushing to reopen sea lanes at any cost.

The piece argues that Trump’s unusual urgency around a limited deal with Tehran is tied to his broader economic struggle with China. It notes that he delayed a planned visit to Beijing by a month because of the operation in Iran, hoping to arrive from a position of strength after nine years without direct contact with Chinese President Xi Jinping and after a year of economic and political pressure aimed at reducing Chinese dominance.

According to the article, Trump wanted to use a perceived victory over Iran to force China into monitoring arrangements on trade, rare earths, and artificial intelligence that would strengthen U.S. control over the global economy. Instead, the Chinese resisted, threatened military escalation over Taiwan after Washington cut off cheap Iranian oil supplies, and the talks ended in large commercial deals, including a sale of 200 Boeing planes to China. The joint statement, the writer says, contained only one sentence, that Hormuz must remain open and Iran must not have nuclear weapons.

The commentary concludes that Trump is behaving like a businessman seeking a new world order and is willing to restrain Israel, empower Qatar and Pakistan as mediators, and put Vice President J.D. Vance in the lead because he is trusted by Iranians and Pakistanis. Over the next 60 days, the writer says, Trump will try to complete his China deal, after which Israel may again become central. If the nuclear agreement fails, Trump may leave Israel to do the "dirty work."