Behind Trump’s Iran Talks, a Calculated Strategy or a Humiliating Concession?

Technical-level talks between the United States and Iran are underway in Switzerland after the senior Iranian delegation left, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance remains in the region. The negotiations, and Washington’s latest moves, have stirred alarm in Israel and criticism abroad, including from Egypt and France, which say the Trump administration has given Iran everything it wanted. Israel has been unusually silent, adding to the uncertainty.

In an interview, reserve Lt. Col. Amit Yagur, formerly a senior officer in the IDF Planning Directorate and naval intelligence, argued that Trump is not acting impulsively. He cited Senator Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, who said that after a long weekend meeting with the president he left calm, understanding the end goal. Yagur said the administration is willing to absorb temporary humiliation, including Iranian mockery and Tehran’s refusal to be photographed with Vance, in order to neutralize Iran’s main leverage.

That leverage, he said, is the threat to the Strait of Hormuz and global oil shipping. According to Yagur, Trump is using a tactic similar to the one in Gaza, securing a framework deal first to strip away the enemy’s main bargaining chip and only then negotiating the details. The immediate goals are to reopen the strait, lower global fuel prices, and stabilize the economy before September. He summed up the approach with the idea that “the last laugh matters most.”

Yagur also said Iran’s internal situation is far worse than its public image suggests. He described severe shortages of water, electricity, medicines, and basic goods, a paralyzed education system, and a state so cash-strapped it cannot pay its security forces regularly. He said Tehran is relying on foreign militias to suppress last week’s protests and is asking for $10 billion and a reconstruction fund, though he doubts that will be enough to ensure stability through the summer heat, when temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius and demand for power and water will spike.

On the northern front, Yagur said a U.S.-Iran deal on Lebanon, being shaped without direct Israeli participation, may actually benefit Israel because it leaves Jerusalem free to act against Hezbollah without international constraints. He added that when such a fragile agreement eventually collapses, the world will not be able to blame Israel. He said Israel should also challenge Washington and the broader international community on the security logic of the issue, strengthen its counterweight alliance with the U.S., Greece, and Cyprus, and revive the IMEC transport corridor with India as a long-term response to the regional bloc led by Pakistan, Qatar, and Turkey.