Likud Counts on Eden, Shaked, Gantz, and Smotrich to Align with Netanyahu

Three potential parties are competing within the so-called "soft right" political space in Israel, a term considered somewhat derogatory. These right-wing voters, often labeled as "Likudniks of Rishon Lezion," are pivotal in determining the outcome of the upcoming elections. They predominantly reside in the coastal plain, are mostly secular or traditional, and many supported Likud in the last elections. Their discontent began with the coalition including ultra-Orthodox parties and Itamar Ben-Gvir, followed by the judicial overhaul, and finally the events of October 7. These developments caused Netanyahu's bloc to lose crucial mandates, which, according to polls, are unlikely to return.

Without these lost mandates, the judicial reforms would have passed easily, as Netanyahu's bloc had a clear majority. The opposition to these reforms mainly came from moderate right-wing voters and Likud supporters, not from traditionally opposing areas like northern Tel Aviv. This group represents the difference between a victory for the change bloc and a defeat. Some currently support Naftali Bennett, others Benny Gantz, but about six to seven mandates are still undecided. These votes are contested by parties led by Smotrich-Gantz, Eden-Shaked-Adelstein, and the newly formed party by Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel.

Likud officials view the Eden-Adelstein and Gantz-Smotrich parties as positive developments, believing they will attract Likud voters who might otherwise abstain. A senior coalition member said these voters will ultimately side with Netanyahu if it helps secure a 61-seat majority. They reject the idea of a minority government reliant on Arab parties. Likud hopes these factions will unite, surpass the electoral threshold, and secure six valuable mandates, enabling a coalition with right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties to reach 60 or 61 seats.

Even if the opposition also reaches 60 or 61 seats with Arab party support, Likud expects these right-wing factions to join a government with the ultra-Orthodox to avoid new elections and "save the country." Gantz is expected to publicly accept a subordinate role, allowing Netanyahu to form a government. After several months, Netanyahu would likely marginalize his partners, leaving them trapped in his government, similar to the weakened role Moshe Kahlon experienced. After about a year and a half, new elections could be called, ending their political careers while Netanyahu remains dominant. This scenario reflects a recurring pattern in Israeli politics over the past two decades. Likud believes and hopes this cycle will repeat once more.