Netanyahu Faces Political Dilemma Over Controversial Deal with Ultra-Orthodox Parties

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox leaders Aryeh Deri and Moshe Gafni forged a major legislative deal that grants special constitutional status to Torah scholars in Israel and includes immunity from arrest for ultra-Orthodox individuals, alongside extending military service for others. This deal, created within two weeks, aims to secure Netanyahu’s legislative agenda, including laws to weaken the Attorney General’s authority and establish a parliamentary investigative committee. However, the legislation has sparked significant backlash from Israeli soldiers and the broader public, who oppose extending military service and fear the deal will increase burdens rather than alleviate them.

The controversy has placed Netanyahu in a difficult position ahead of upcoming elections, as approving the legislation risks alienating his secular and religious Zionist base, while rejecting it could damage his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox electorate. Netanyahu appears to be leaning toward preserving the ultra-Orthodox partnership, hoping that softening the law’s provisions will reduce opposition.

Separately, political maneuvering in the center involves former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who announced a political alliance in April. Internal polling suggested the alliance might weaken their support by 20%. Lapid claimed he was close to an agreement with former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, prompting Bennett to hastily join forces with Lapid. However, Eizenkot later decided against joining the alliance, preferring to wait until the last moment to assess potential benefits. Despite this, Bennett and Lapid continue to cooperate closely, focusing on joint policy proposals and efforts to unseat Netanyahu.

Meanwhile, about seven Knesset seats remain politically unaligned, with various politicians exploring new party formations or alliances. Some, like Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, remain open to joining a "change government" excluding the Ra'am party, while others refuse any coalition that forces a joint government, even if it means new elections. This fragmentation poses challenges for both Eizenkot and Bennett, who rely on votes from the center bloc, which has previously seen parties fail to cross the electoral threshold.

The unfolding political dynamics highlight Netanyahu’s struggle to balance competing electorates and the complexities of coalition-building in Israel’s fragmented political landscape.