Netanyahu Faces Political Dilemma Over Controversial Deal With Ultra-Orthodox Parties

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox leaders Aryeh Deri and Moshe Gafni forged a major political deal in recent weeks, creating a new Basic Law that grants special constitutional status to Torah scholars in Israel. The legislation also includes provisions to exempt ultra-Orthodox soldiers from arrests for several months and extends military service for other conscripts. In return, Netanyahu expected to pass a package of laws aimed at weakening the Attorney General’s authority, including legislation to dismiss the current legal advisor and establish a parliamentary investigative committee.

However, the deal has sparked significant backlash, particularly from soldiers who oppose the extension of service to 32 months and the exemption from arrests, which the IDF warns could hinder recruitment of ultra-Orthodox soldiers. After intense criticism during Knesset committee discussions, Netanyahu partially retreated by removing a clause balancing Torah study with other values, but the core law remains. The legislation is now politically risky for Netanyahu, who must choose between alienating his secular electorate or jeopardizing support from the ultra-Orthodox ahead of elections in four months.

Separately, political maneuvering continues in the center-left camp, where Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a sudden alliance in late April. This move surprised many, as internal polls suggested it could reduce their combined support by 20%. It emerged that Lapid had claimed to be close to signing an agreement with former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, pressuring Bennett to join quickly. However, Eizenkot was not interested in joining at that time and remains cautious about alliances unless they clearly benefit his bloc.

Meanwhile, several centrist and right-wing politicians, including Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein, and Ayelet Shaked, are exploring new political alignments as about seven Knesset seats remain unclaimed. Some, like Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, are open to supporting a "change government" that excludes the Ra'am party, while others refuse any coalition that forces a joint government, even if it means another election round. These developments could influence the balance of power and coalition possibilities as Israel approaches its upcoming elections.