Internal Conservative Rivalry Shapes Iran's Leadership Ahead of Nuclear Deal

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has notably remained absent from public events, including his father's funeral, raising questions within Iran about who truly governs the country. The political divide is no longer between reformists and conservatives but between pragmatic conservatives and hardline conservatives. The pragmatic faction reportedly includes senior Revolutionary Guards generals, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, President Ebrahim Raisi, and Supreme National Security Council head Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr. This group has gained the upper hand, advancing the memorandum of understanding, direct negotiations with the U.S., and plans for a broader agreement.

The hardline conservatives, aligned with Ali Khamenei's son, have publicly attacked the pragmatic camp. For example, Qalibaf's recent interview about the U.S. memorandum was abruptly cut off on state television, which has intensified criticism of the negotiation team, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. This public dispute reflects deeper internal fractures, with four senior Iranian officials and two Revolutionary Guards officers describing a fierce struggle for the Supreme Leader's support, which will determine Iran's future direction.

Since the war began months ago, Revolutionary Guards generals have consolidated power and effectively run the country. A notable shift in decision-making was highlighted by Vice President Mohammad Jafar Qalibaf Panah's remarks suggesting the Supreme Leader no longer has the final say, emphasizing professional review of his positions. Political circles question whether Mojtaba Khamenei can maintain control amid his public absence.

When Mojtaba hesitated over the memorandum, President Raisi reportedly threatened resignation, citing dire economic conditions and a U.S. naval blockade crippling Iran. The Central Bank governor warned of a severe financial crisis and potential shortages of food and medicine by the end of August if the blockade continues. These warnings influenced Ali Khamenei's eventual backing of the deal, despite his written opposition to the principle of the agreement, allowing Raisi to proceed with the Supreme National Security Council's support.

Following the funeral, Ali Khamenei faces critical decisions on key appointments, including the judiciary, state broadcasting, the Basij militia, and his own chief of staff. Iranian sources say these choices will signal which faction he favors going forward.