Dubai Flights Halted, Disrupting Israeli Travel to the East

The suspension of flights between Israel and Dubai, following an attempted hijacking of a Flydubai plane, is significantly altering Israeli travel routes to the East. Dubai rapidly transformed from an obscure destination into a major aviation hub for Israelis, serving both as a destination and a cost-effective transit point, a shift that began after the Abraham Accords in 2020. Flydubai's inaugural commercial flight landed in Tel Aviv on November 26, 2020, with Israir launching its first flight to Dubai on December 2, 2020. Initially, 97,000 Israelis visited Dubai in its first year, a figure that surged to approximately 239,000 in 2022. Dubai also became a gateway to the East through the extensive networks of Emirates and Flydubai. The halt in flights therefore impacts not just a niche route but a vital corridor used by hundreds of thousands of passengers annually. Before Dubai's rise, Istanbul was the primary transit hub for Israelis traveling East. Prior to October 7, 2023, Turkey was the largest flight destination from Tel Aviv, accounting for 13.5% of passenger traffic, with Turkish Airlines operating over ten daily flights between Tel Aviv and Istanbul, similar to Flydubai's pre-incident frequency.

With the Dubai route suspended, some traffic is expected to shift to Abu Dhabi, where Etihad continues to operate six daily flights to Tel Aviv. Etihad initially announced plans to increase its flights to Israel but later received confirmation from the Emirates that this was unnecessary, maintaining its regular schedule without unusual congestion. The flight suspension has already led to an approximate 15% increase in ticket prices, partly due to Flydubai passengers needing to purchase last-minute one-way tickets back to Israel after their flights were canceled. However, this price hike may be temporary as other airlines prepare to expand capacity on alternative routes, potentially stabilizing prices. Until the situation with Flydubai is resolved, demand for connections to the East is anticipated to disperse across several alternative routes. These include Abu Dhabi with Etihad's extensive network to Asia and Australia, Ethiopian Airlines via Addis Ababa to Asian destinations, and European connections through Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, and Air France via Frankfurt, Vienna, and Paris, depending on the final destination. The extent of price increases will also depend on how quickly competing airlines increase their seat offerings on these alternative routes. In the interim, El Al, Israir, and Arkia are preparing to fill some of the void and are expected to resume their flights to Dubai pending security approvals.