Ilan Pappe Foresees Israel's Collapse and Post-Zionist Future

Anti-Zionist writer Ilan Pappe argues in his new book, "Israel on the Brink of Collapse," that the end of Israel as a Zionist-settler state is not a political option but an objective process already underway. Pappe views the book as a political manifesto, warning both Israelis and Palestinians to prepare for a post-Israel era. He defines "collapse" as the end of the current Israeli governance, driven by deep-seated cracks within the Zionist state that reforms cannot mend.

Pappe attributes the inevitability of this collapse to several factors, including the failure of U.S.-mediated peace processes since 1967, which he believes only prevented war rather than securing peace. He notes the rise of religious Zionism, its expansionist aims in the West Bank and Gaza, and Israel's framing of its conflict with Palestinian groups as part of a global war on terror.

The book highlights internal societal divisions within Israel, particularly the conflict between liberals and Jewish theocrats over the state's identity. Pappe describes this as a schism between liberal Zionist Israel and "Judea," an ideological entity emerging from West Bank settlements, blending religious Zionism and Orthodox Judaism. He posits that the "Judea" entity's violence, currently directed at Palestinians, poses a greater existential threat to secular Jews than to the state itself, calling it a "ticking time bomb" that undermines Israeli societal unity.

Further cracks include Israel's growing global isolation, shifting attitudes among American Jews, economic stagnation, and perceived weaknesses in the Israeli military and security institutions. Pappe questions how the "Israel-Judea" conflict will end the Zionist system, suggesting it might not lead to one side's victory but a fundamental transformation of the state, potentially exacerbating the existential threat to Palestinians.

Pappe then outlines "mini-revolutions" for Palestinians, urging them to reorganize politically, perhaps by reforming the PLO or creating a new entity, and to prepare for a post-collapse transition based on transitional and restorative justice. This justice would involve acknowledging past wrongs, accountability for systematic human rights violations, and victim testimony. He proposes principles of recognition, accountability, and acceptance, where Israelis would acknowledge grievances and the ongoing Nakba, leading to the implementation of Palestinian refugee return and reparations. Acceptance would follow, paving the way for Palestinian and Arab recognition of a large Jewish population in historical Palestine.

Regarding West Bank settlements, Pappe suggests they could be retained under a post-Zionist framework if their colonial identity is removed and they are repurposed, a concept he calls "urban transitional justice." He also advocates for restoring Palestine's physical connection to the Arab East through transportation networks, fostering economic, cultural, and familial exchanges to move beyond the nation-state model. Finally, Pappe envisions a redefinition of Jewish collective identity, both outside and within a post-Israel Palestine, and believes his work is primarily aimed at Palestinians, who he sees as most wronged by Zionism and best positioned to navigate its aftermath.