Houthi Threat Drives Regional Coalition Talks Amidst UAE-Saudi Tensions

Despite the recent incident involving a Flydubai flight, which saw a co-pilot attempt to crash the plane, regional powers are focusing on a more significant threat: the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis recently seized the home of Yemen's parliament speaker in Taiz, marking another setback for Saudi-backed forces. While the UAE has often viewed Saudi failures with satisfaction, they now recognize that a decisive defeat of Saudi Arabia against the Houthis could embolden Iran's proxies to target the Emirates as well.

This escalating Houthi threat presents a potential opportunity for Israel and the United States to form a regional coalition to counter the rebels. Saudi Arabia is hesitant to engage the Houthis alone, fearing a prolonged conflict involving continuous ballistic missile attacks, similar to the challenges faced by the US with Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Flydubai incident, while serious, is considered less strategically critical in the Gulf's current security calculus.

In a move signaling a desire for renewed cooperation, Saudi Arabia quickly handed over the Omani pilot involved in the Flydubai incident to the UAE, going beyond international legal obligations. This action underscores Riyadh's interest in aligning with Abu Dhabi against the Houthi threat. The UAE, in turn, remembers Israel's deployment of Iron Dome batteries on its territory against Iranian threats, indicating a long-term strategic perspective that transcends the temporary tensions from the Flydubai incident.

While a Saudi-led defense pact has yet to yield practical results for Riyadh, the current situation, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman needing support from UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, who himself is concerned about the Houthi threat, could foster closer collaboration. Coupled with Western frustration over Iranian-backed maritime blockades and the strategic importance of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, there is a growing possibility of a combined regional military effort against the Houthis in the coming months. This unified approach is seen as the only viable way to decisively address the challenge posed by Iran's proxies in Yemen.