Former Shin Bet Official Warns of Soldier Kidnapping Ahead of Elections

Moshe Pozailov, a former senior official in the Shin Bet and now a senior fellow at the Misgav National Security Institute, has warned that terrorist organizations may attempt a "game-changing event" ahead of upcoming elections, with the kidnapping of a soldier being a particularly concerning scenario. Such an event, he explained, could create significant public and political pressure within Israel, potentially influencing the election results.

Pozailov addressed Prime Minister Netanyahu's warning of a potential security escalation before election day, stating that such warnings are often relevant, especially before holidays and elections. He differentiated between general awareness of potential escalation and specific intelligence about an imminent event, noting that threats exist from various fronts including Gaza, Iran, the Houthis, Judea and Samaria, and Arab citizens of Israel.

He elaborated that terrorist leaders aim to achieve several objectives through such a kidnapping, including their own release from prison, the downfall of the current Israeli government, and the installation of a new government more amenable to their interests. Pozailov suggested that a kidnapping could paradoxically benefit Netanyahu politically, as some voters might see a security escalation as a reason to vote for a leader positioning himself as "Mr. Security." He cited the cases of Gilad Shalit and recent hostage situations as examples of the dramatic public and political pressure such an event can generate.

Beyond specific objectives, Pozailov noted that creating chaos within Israeli society is a bonus for terrorist groups, aligning with their strategic goals of establishing a Palestinian state and undermining Israel's existence. He asserted that Israel must continue its policy of preemptive action, citing recent successful operations in Gaza, Judea and Samaria, against Arab Israeli terror cells, in Lebanon, and against Turkish infiltration plans in Syria.

Pozailov concluded by observing a shift in Israel's security perception since October 7th, stating that the country is now more aware of its strength and less willing to let others dictate its fate, expressing hope that this approach will continue.