Experts Warn of Challenges in October 7th Investigations Due to Passage of Time

Israeli legal experts believe that even if a new government is formed after upcoming elections and establishes an official commission of inquiry into the failures of October 7th, the investigation will be significantly hampered by the passage of time. The government's Legal Advisor, Gali Baharav-Miara, previously warned the Supreme Court in August about the damage caused by the time elapsed since the attacks, emphasizing that an official commission is the only independent and appropriate body for such an investigation. However, she supported delaying the decision on forming the commission until after a new government is in place, citing the proximity of elections.

Concerns about memory erosion, potential coordination of testimonies, and the loss of evidence were echoed by the father of a female soldier killed on October 7th, who told Haaretz that the delay would lead to such issues. Historical precedents, like the Agranat Commission for the 1973 war formed three weeks after its end and the Kahan Commission for the Sabra and Shatila massacre formed about six weeks later, highlight the urgency of timely investigations. However, other Israeli commissions, such as those investigating the 1933 assassination of Arlosoroff and the disappearance of Yemeni Jewish children in the 1950s, were formed years later and faced significant obstacles in reaching the truth due to destroyed documents, missing medical records, and deceased witnesses.

Legal experts anticipate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and others under investigation may seek to delay proceedings by filing legal petitions and refusing to provide witness lists. Dr. Dana Blonder, a researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that such a commission could resemble a criminal trial, with lawyers representing all witnesses, potentially prolonging the process. Professor Miguel Deutch and lawyer Avigdor Klagspeld highlighted natural memory decay, the potential loss of evidence, and the difficulty in obtaining testimonies from witnesses who have moved abroad or passed away. Klagspeld also pointed out that the passage of time blurs the line between what individuals knew at the time and what they learned afterward, impacting the credibility of testimonies.

Blonder added that the digital age presents a massive volume of information requiring significant resources and potentially the use of artificial intelligence for analysis. Klagspeld suggested that since most security officials from October 7th are no longer in their positions, the commission should focus on systemic improvements to prevent future disasters rather than assigning personal blame. Blonder proposed that given the scale of the events, multiple truth-seeking committees under official patronage, perhaps led by the President, might be more effective in pursuing justice for victims. Despite the challenges, Blonder stressed the importance of an objective and professional commission to establish facts, transform the ongoing wound into a scar, and create a shared, evidence-based public understanding.