US Midterm Elections Could Reshape Israel's Future Relations

Upcoming US midterm elections on November 3rd, traditionally focused on domestic issues, carry significant implications for Israel's future relationship with the United States. All 435 members of the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate are up for election. The outcome will determine the next Congress's stance on Israel and the "special relationship" between the two nations.

The Democratic Party, once a staunch supporter of Zionism, has become increasingly critical of Israeli actions, particularly in the West Bank and Gaza. Consequently, the Israeli government has increasingly aligned itself with the Republican Party, which has shown greater favor. This shift occurred without significant efforts to build bridges with Democrats, whose leaders in the 1960s laid the groundwork for the strategic partnership.

Recent Israeli governments have openly supported Republican presidential candidates like Mitt Romney and Donald Trump, and have had a contentious relationship with Democratic Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden. The current elections, while ostensibly centered on issues like the rising cost of living and energy prices, could see a Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress, which are currently controlled by Republicans.

Polls suggest a 72% likelihood of Democrats regaining control of the House. The Senate race is closer, but Democrats are also in a strong position to win. A key concern for Israel is the rise of progressive and radical elements within the Democratic Party. Candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine, who are leading in polls, have expressed extreme hostility towards Israel, with El-Sayed accusing Israel of genocide and calling for an end to military aid, and Jackson reportedly adding antisemitic remarks.

While these candidates do not represent the majority of Democrats, the era of overwhelming bipartisan support for Israel has waned. Many current Democratic senators, while still supporting Israel, are critical of its policies in the West Bank and Gaza, advocating for restrictions on arms sales and increased pressure for a Palestinian settlement. Previously, such critics were a small minority, but now they are more vocal.

If Democrats gain a majority, they may be able to advance legislative initiatives previously blocked by Republican majorities, such as requiring reports on human rights in the West Bank or suspending certain arms sales. This could be achieved even against a weakened president who might need to use his veto power. It's also noted that a neo-isolationist faction within the Republican party is critical of Israel and seeks to reduce US foreign commitments, including military aid.

Furthermore, the current US administration, despite its strong support for Israel, is reportedly considering punitive measures against those responsible for violence in the West Bank. The article concludes by hoping that these potential scenarios, alongside a significant drop in American public support for Israel, especially among young Democrats, will be considered by Israeli leaders, particularly if the next Israeli government is also right-wing.