Shin Bet Chief Warned of War Risk Weeks Before Oct. 7 Attack

Ronen Bar, the former Director of the Shin Bet, warned Israeli lawmakers of an imminent war risk and the possibility of a multi-front conflict approximately three weeks before the October 7 Hamas attack. Bar made an unusual request for a classified hearing before the intelligence subcommittee of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, presenting his assessment under the title "The Perfect Storm." He argued that internal societal divisions in Israel were weakening the country's deterrence, potentially signaling an opportunity for adversaries to act.

This alert followed earlier warnings Bar had issued to political leaders throughout 2023. Notably, he had contacted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July to express concerns about a potential war. Military intelligence had also sent Netanyahu four letters between March and July, detailing how Israel's enemies perceived an opportunity stemming from the nation's internal crisis.

According to security officials, Bar sought a direct audience with the Knesset subcommittee because he felt his previous warnings were not being taken seriously enough by the political echelon. These revelations emerge amid an ongoing dispute between Bar and Netanyahu regarding responsibility for the failures preceding the October 7th attack. Netanyahu reportedly blames Bar for not alerting him the night before the attack, despite several concerning signals. Bar, in turn, accuses Netanyahu of selectively presenting documents related to that period.