Coalition Voters Returning, But Not to Likud, Poll Shows

A recent poll indicates a narrowing gap between Israel's governing coalition and the opposition, with some voters who previously supported the coalition beginning to return, though not necessarily to the Likud party. Sociologist Menachem Lazar of Maariv, who analyzed the survey, stated that this trend has been evident for several weeks. He noted that while the opposition bloc held a significant lead a few months ago, a key indicator was the lack of movement between the blocs. Lazar explained that many undecided voters in the 2022 elections had originally voted for the coalition, and these voters are now returning.

However, these returning voters are not exclusively gravitating towards the Likud. Lazar suggests that Ofer Winter's party is attracting some of these disillusioned voters, describing Winter as a right-wing figure potentially untainted by the events of October 7th, making him an alternative for those disappointed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Lazar believes that as long as Winter's party remains above the electoral threshold, the trend of closing the gap between the blocs will continue, and potentially the lead could shift. If Winter's party fails to cross the threshold, however, this trend might reverse, and the opposition could regain a substantial advantage.

He reiterated that while the coalition voters are returning, they are not solely choosing Likud, which is polling below 20 mandates, indicating that disillusioned Likud voters have other options.

The poll also examined Gadi Eisenkot's support, which Lazar estimates peaked around 25 mandates a month ago but has since dropped to 21 mandates. Lazar attributes this decline, possibly influenced by a Likud campaign, to affecting undecided voters.

Uncertainty also surrounds the Arab parties, with their final electoral lineup and potential voter turnout remaining unclear. Currently, Arab parties collectively poll at 12 mandates. Lazar suggested that increased turnout in the Arab sector could strengthen these parties, possibly spurred by a High Court decision on pending petitions. He concluded that with security issues returning to the forefront of the political agenda, Netanyahu and the coalition are closing the gap with the opposition, but the situation remains fluid.