Israel's Post-Election Future: Cantonization or Exodus

The author, Raan Adalist, posits that the only way for Israel's liberal-democratic sector to preserve its character is through "cantonization," a concept that should be integrated into the policies of a "change government." He argues that if the right-wing government wins the upcoming elections, Israelis who value liberal democracy will face a choice between "packing up and fleeing" with their children or retreating inward. Adalist notes that a quarter of a million Israelis have already left, joining the million already living abroad, and those remaining will experience diminished freedom of expression and public space.

For those who stay under a right-wing victory, Adalist suggests a strategy of "internal migration" and sealing their homes against perceived threats from foreign policy leading to global boycotts, security policy resulting in perpetual wars, and domestic policy fostering exclusion or mob rule. This internal migration involves building lives around connections with liberal populations and countries worldwide, hoping internet access remains unrestricted. The goal is to develop international business, social, educational, and scientific ties, creating a liberal-democratic autonomy centered in Tel Aviv as a geographical unit, driven by survival and demographic realities.

Adalist contends that for the majority of the population, the upcoming elections are not decisive, as demographic trends favor the religious sector regardless of election outcomes. Even a "change government" led by someone like Izankot, he believes, will not bring dramatic policy shifts. While such a government might improve efficiency, international relations, and address corruption, fundamental foreign and security policies will likely remain unchanged. He likens the necessary transformation to maneuvering a "carrier in a category 10 hurricane," a task he feels current leadership is not equipped for.

The author proposes cantonization as the sole condition for preserving the liberal-democratic sector, suggesting that the "change government" should implement its principles. He observes that the ultra-Orthodox, settlers, and Arab citizens already operate in de facto autonomous cantons with internal cohesion and geographical boundaries. In contrast, the liberal sector is exposed. Tel Aviv, while appearing autonomous, is increasingly infiltrated economically and ideologically. Adalist warns that a victory by the "corrupt and messianic right" will intensify the suppression of liberalism and decency, potentially leading to systemic violence, though the state framework itself will likely endure due to survival instincts and adaptability.