Israel's Euro 2028 Qualification Chances Decline Significantly

The Israeli national football team's prospects for qualifying for the Euro 2028 tournament have diminished, according to updated forecasts. With only one point from their UEFA Nations League matches so far, the team, coached by Ran Ben Shimon, faces a slim chance of securing one of the top two spots in their group, which would lead to a higher seeding in the Euro qualifiers. Austria leads the group with seven points, followed by Kosovo and Ireland with four points each. Israel is currently last with one point and a goal difference of minus five. FMData's algorithm estimates Israel's probability of finishing in the top two at just 4.4%, with an 82.2% chance of ending up in fourth place. Despite these odds, the team is still expected to win their playoff match for survival in League B of the Nations League against an opponent from League C. However, simulations indicate that since their recent poor results, particularly after the match against Ireland, Israel's chances of reaching Euro 2028 have dropped by 4.6%, from 19.9% to 15.3%. This represents one of the most substantial decreases in qualification probability observed across Europe.