Three Years of War: Protracted, Complex, and Far From Over

The war that began three years ago is described as the longest in Israel's history and one of the most intense in the modern Middle East. While other conflicts have been deadlier or longer, this war is distinguished by its vast geographical scope, numerous actors, and sharp turns. Despite significant developments like the collapse of the Assad regime and Israeli-American actions against Iran, and despite Israeli claims of reshaping the region, many fundamental issues remain unchanged. The "Axis of Resistance" continues to pose the primary threat to Israel, with no moderate Muslim bloc or coalition, including Israel, having emerged to counter it. This axis, centered on asymmetric attrition warfare fueled by fanaticism, underwent a dramatic shift before October 7th, acquiring regular army capabilities and operational patterns, particularly Hezbollah, and developing a belief in its ability to paralyze Israel, seize territory, and annihilate it.

The October 7th attack instilled optimism within the Axis of Resistance that its strategic vision was being realized. However, subsequent events have been a bitter disappointment for them. Israel, contrary to their expectations, did not collapse and demonstrated resilience. Conversely, the resistance axis suffered severe blows, including unprecedented destruction and casualties across multiple fronts, the elimination of leadership, territorial losses, and significant damage to Iran's standing. The Assad regime, a key pillar of the axis, has weakened, and the anticipated "unification of fronts" did not materialize, which largely saved Israel, especially due to Hezbollah's limited involvement in the initial Hamas attack.

This severe setback led many to eulogize the resistance as a force and an idea, particularly after operations like "Northern Arrow" and "With the Lions." While these blows weakened the axis, they did not threaten its existence, prompting strategic introspection. Key lessons learned include the need for improved internal coordination among axis members, as Sinwar's surprise attack timing prevented a more successful unified operation. Researcher Moussa al-Sadeh explains that a "fauda" (chaos) within the resistance axis regarding fundamental concepts before October 7th contributed to the failure of the original plan for front unification. A second conclusion was the necessity to return to the core characteristics of resistance groups, emphasizing asymmetric warfare based on artillery power, attrition, and guerrilla tactics, regretting the militarization that channeled non-state actors into direct confrontation with Israel, exposing their vulnerabilities.

From Israel's perspective, the three-year war presents a paradox. While its enemies have been severely hit and Israel has displayed unprecedented courage and capabilities, including territorial gains on three fronts and de facto annexation of the West Bank, and forged a strategic alliance with Washington, a decisive victory or the stated goal of eradicating enemies has not been achieved. This necessitates prolonged warfare without a defined end and promises of ultimate victory that remain illusory or vague. Despite military achievements, none of the threats have vanished; in some arenas, they may have intensified. Iran's regime, led by a more extreme elite, continues missile production and may accelerate its nuclear program. Hezbollah and Hamas, though damaged, survive and remain dominant. The resistance axis is rebuilding, evidenced by Houthi successes, and new regional alliances have not formed due to deep Arab suspicion and Israel's difficulty in publicly displaying security ties, alongside growing public animosity. Furthermore, Israel's international standing is unprecedentedly precarious, perceived as having lost its strategic balance, adopting an extreme, sometimes messianic, persona, and exhibiting an addiction to force and an obsessive search for enemies. This has led to growing international isolation, which is explained to Israelis as antisemitism or Western naivete.

The resistance views Israel's political "collapse" as a major achievement. A Hamas website article highlights the Palestinian issue's prominence on the global stage, increased recognition of a Palestinian state, halted normalization, and Israel's isolation, exemplified by the empty hall during Netanyahu's UN speech. The prevailing view within the resistance is that the October 7th attack was a turning point, a divine command, and that despite severe blows and mistakes, these are mere obstacles on a long path to victory. The resistance's optimism is also fueled by deepening internal divisions within Israel, including negative immigration trends, extreme discourse, suppression of criticism, erosion of cohesion, and political-public malfunctions that undermine Israel's image as the "only democracy in the Middle East" and signal its integration into the regional jungle. The article questions the reliance solely on military force as a strategy, suggesting it's a post-traumatic response to pre-October 7th over-reliance on containment, and urges a move away from illusions of eradicating enemies towards a balanced approach to prevent strategic collapse.