Despite Israeli concern over lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and unfreezing Islamic Republic assets, Reuters reports that any full rollback would be a long, complicated process and may not succeed. The sanctions system on Iran has been built over more than four decades, since 1979, through presidential orders, broad congressional legislation, and monitoring regimes by the United Nations and the European Union.
Former US counterterrorism adviser Juan Zarate said the sanctions are a “tangled web” that is not limited to presidential action. Matt Zweig, a former House Foreign Affairs Committee aide, said unwinding them would be “like peeling an onion,” exposing the administration to legal and political risks. The issue comes after a 14-point memorandum signed last week, under which the US is supposed to start lifting sanctions on a timetable to be set within 60 days.
The US Treasury has already issued a temporary general license valid until August 21, allowing production, supply and sale of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products, along with temporary easing in banking, insurance and transportation. Reuters said that if the relief holds, Iran could gain up to $3 billion in the next two months, and potentially tens of billions more if the easing becomes permanent and opens more buyers beyond China, which currently takes about 90% of Iranian exports.
Still, former sanctions official Jeremy Paner said removing thousands of entities from sanctions lists would take the Office of Foreign Assets Control at least a year. There is also Republican criticism in Congress, worries about money reaching armed groups, and broader private-sector skepticism because of litigation risks and separate sanctions from Britain and other countries. Former Treasury official Stephanie Connor asked, “Are we really going to allow money to start flowing to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps?” Another former counterterrorism official, Zarate, said companies cannot simply flip a switch after decades of sanctions. Risk consultant Brett Erickson said major investments are unlikely until the picture is politically stable.
