Israel's Defense Establishment Lacks Scenario for Hijacked Airliners

A recent incident involving a Flydubai flight, where passengers were saved by the crew and reserve pilots after a potential threat, highlighted a critical gap in Israel's threat assessment: the absence of a scenario for a hijacked passenger plane targeting the country. Military correspondent Yossi Yehoshua of Ynet noted that neither intelligence warnings nor advanced technology could have prevented the situation, emphasizing that preparedness for the unpredictable is paramount in the volatile Middle East.

Despite the successful resolution of the Flydubai incident, it raises questions about the definition of "warning." Israel's defense establishment recently presented Prime Minister Netanyahu with a threat assessment covering fronts from Hamas in Gaza and Judea and Samaria to tensions with Iran and the wider region. However, a scenario involving the hijacking of a plane en route to Israel was not included, which the article suggests is not necessarily a failure given the impossibility of predicting every eventuality.

Adding to the complexity, then-U.S. President Donald Trump suggested on October 1st that Iran might be linked to the incident, a development considered highly alarming if true. The article points out that even constantly updated assessments by the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) can become outdated quickly in the Middle East, with events like a tweet potentially altering the strategic landscape.

The defense establishment's current focus is on Iran, as developments there impact the entire region. While there is no specific intelligence indicating an imminent Iranian missile launch against Israel, the assessment suggests that U.S. pressure might force Iran to choose between a deal it dislikes and renewed confrontation. This could lead to a preemptive strike by Iran, though currently deemed unlikely, or Iran acting preemptively if it suspects an Israeli attack.

Elections in the U.S. and Israel might be perceived by Tehran as an opportunity to advance its nuclear program, potentially limiting responses from Israel and the U.S. The IDF is preparing for various contingencies, including a potential return to hostilities, and the Air Force is on high alert. The army acknowledges that adversaries may exploit Israel's perceived "deterred" status to test its boundaries and launch surprise attacks.