US-China Summit Aims to Manage Rivalry, Not End It

The summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington is not expected to resolve the deep-seated rivalry between the two nations. Issues such as trade, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, Taiwan, and Iran remain points of significant divergence. Instead, the meeting's primary goal is to establish frameworks for managing this competition and prevent it from escalating out of control.

The U.S. seeks to reduce its dependence on China and maintain its technological edge, while Beijing aims to mitigate American pressure and achieve technological independence. However, neither country can fully decouple from the other without incurring substantial economic and strategic costs. This interdependence is particularly evident in critical minerals and semiconductors, where China holds leverage through its control over rare earth elements and magnet production, while the U.S. leads in advanced chips and AI computing power.

Technology, especially artificial intelligence, is identified as the key long-term battleground, seen as crucial for both economic and security power. While no agreement to end competition in this sector is anticipated, the summit might foster communication and early warning mechanisms to reduce the risk of technological or security incidents spiraling into broader crises.

Taiwan remains a central issue, representing sovereignty for Beijing and strategic credibility for Washington. Xi Jinping will likely assess Trump's willingness to make concessions on Taiwan in exchange for economic agreements. Even without an official policy shift, any perceived ambiguity could be interpreted by Beijing as a significant signal.

From an Israeli perspective, China's stance on Iran is also noteworthy. While China desires to maintain relations with Tehran, its broader interests in the Middle East, including energy security and trade routes, are paramount. The question is not whether China will choose between Iran and the U.S., but how much it will invest in supporting Tehran as the costs rise.

The true test of the summit's success will be measured after the meetings conclude, focusing on whether critical mineral flows are maintained, technology restrictions evolve, communication channels function during crises, and developments in Taiwan and Iran unfold as expected. The U.S. and China are preparing for a protracted competition, and the summit's significance lies in its attempt to set rules for this rivalry, which has become a central feature of the international system.