Eritrea Severs Ties With Ethiopia Amid Escalating Conflict

Eritrea announced on Thursday that it is severing all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, following Ethiopia's closure of its embassy in Asmara and the expulsion of ten Eritrean diplomats declared "persona non grata." Addis Ababa has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting an opposition alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which has been fighting Ethiopian government forces since last week. All three countries deny supporting the rebels.

Explosions were heard in Addis Ababa overnight, possibly from drone attacks, raising fears of an escalation in the conflict in northern Ethiopia and its spread. The Ethiopian government forces are advancing in a city recently recaptured from rebels. This conflict represents the most significant escalation in Ethiopia's fighting since the end of the 2020-2022 civil war, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. Eritrea had previously fought alongside the Ethiopian federal government in that conflict.

Relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia were restored in 2018 after being severed during a military confrontation between 1998 and 2000. The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry stated it decided to close its embassy in Asmara in response to Eritrea's "direct and indirect acts of hostility and aggression." It also announced that ten Eritrean diplomats must leave Ethiopia within 48 hours. Eritrea's Information Minister told Reuters that the expulsion of diplomats effectively meant the closure of Ethiopia's embassy in Addis Ababa. The Eritrean Foreign Ministry stated, "We have no choice but to reciprocate in kind and sever all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia."

A source linked to the rebels told Reuters that they attacked Addis Ababa with drones, including the army headquarters. If confirmed, this would be the first known drone attack by anti-government forces against Addis Ababa, which is hundreds of kilometers from the front lines. The Israeli Foreign Ministry recommended that Israelis avoid traveling to the Tigray, Amhara, Afar, and Danakil Desert regions of Ethiopia due to the escalating security situation, renewed armed conflicts, and their expansion into other areas. The ministry warned that the unstable security situation in northern Ethiopia, coupled with movement restrictions and flight cancellations, could significantly impede travel and evacuation options from the region.

During the past week, Ethiopian government forces achieved a significant victory by capturing the strategic town of Alamata, located 120 km south of the rebel stronghold of Mekelle. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is battling an alliance formed against him by several rebel organizations, including the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the Amhara militia 'Fano,' with the stated goal of overthrowing his government. Alamata is a crucial supply hub for food and fuel and lies on the border between Tigray and the neighboring Amhara region, where fighting is also ongoing. The conflict, which erupted in 2020 between the Ethiopian federal army and the TPLF, is estimated to have caused the world's largest humanitarian disaster in recent years, with at least 500,000 deaths. The war ended in November 2022 with the "Pretoria Agreement," but tensions have resurfaced, leading to renewed fighting.