Balad Chairman's Disqualification Hurts Arab Voter Turnout, Pollster Says

Shlomo Filber, director of the Research and Polls Institute, analyzed the upcoming election's mandate map on Channel 14's "Shfashfash" program, stating that the right-wing bloc remains stable with 62-63 mandates. He argued that the controversy surrounding the personal disqualification of Balad chairman Sami Abu Shehadeh is significantly impacting the Arab voter base, potentially costing the left-wing bloc crucial support.

Filber explained that while voter turnout is similar and high for both the left and right blocs, around 70%, the key to the election outcome lies in the turnout within the Haredi and Arab sectors. The disqualification of Abu Shehadeh, coupled with a recommendation from the Supreme Court president to remove his candidacy, has created a "cooling effect" on Arab voter motivation.

According to Filber, approximately 50% of Balad's potential voters are now undecided and may not vote, reducing the party's expected mandates. He noted that Abu Shehadeh's potential absence from the Knesset has "tremendously lowered" voter motivation. Panelist David Porer added that Abu Shehadeh is causing "enormous damage" to Arab parties, having previously wasted mandates and now potentially wasting votes.

Filber concluded that for many in the Arab sector, the focus is on local power and budgets, not just parliamentary activity. The loss of Abu Shehadeh's leadership diminishes the influence of Arab parties on election day. The analysis suggests that the crisis around Abu Shehadeh's candidacy is dismantling the left-wing bloc's hope for high Arab mobilization, solidifying an advantage for the national camp in forming the next government.