Iran Seeks to Sow Discord in US Ahead of Midterms, Expert Says

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has issued an open letter to the American public urging voters to reject President Donald Trump's policies ahead of the midterm elections, according to Reuters. The letter, which reportedly links a change in U.S. policy to the possibility of "peaceful coexistence," is seen by an Israeli expert as a continuation of long-standing Iranian strategy.

Benyamin Sabeti, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that Tehran is not necessarily convinced it can sway American voters but views the attempt itself as part of a decades-long strategy to deepen internal U.S. divisions and buy time against international pressure. "The Iranians are not sure they will influence, but they always take steps," Sabeti explained, noting similar tactics were employed during the Reagan and Bush administrations.

Sabeti believes Iran's goal extends beyond influencing individual voters; it aims to introduce instability into the American system, hoping that domestic focus will alleviate pressure on strategic issues like its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. "They are trying to create instability, that something is always changing so they won't be noticed and won't be pressured on the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz. This way they will gain more weeks, months, or years. They want to gain time until they have the upper hand," he said.

The Iranian appeal coincides with existing public criticism of Trump in the U.S., particularly concerning economic issues and the war in Iran. Sabeti characterizes this as Iran identifying and amplifying existing sentiments rather than creating them. "They are listening to voices in the U.S. talking about Trump's declining popularity and they are riding the wave," he observed.

However, Sabeti also noted that Iranian intervention could backfire, potentially providing Trump with evidence of Tehran's opposition to him. He suggested Iran might be trying to leverage public anger over rising oil prices, blaming Trump and implying his removal would resolve the issue. Beyond public messaging, Sabeti warned of potential cyber interference, citing recent cyber activities against U.S. entities and similar incidents in Israeli elections. He raised the possibility of Iran collaborating with Russia to influence the election outcome through technological means, rather than direct voter persuasion, as a more significant threat closer to election day.