Ex-National Security Advisor Warns of Turkish Threat, Hezbollah's Weakening

Former National Security Council Director, Avi Hacohen, has issued a stark warning regarding the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, particularly highlighting potential friction with Turkey under President Erdoğan. In an interview with "Maariv," Hacohen analyzed the region's volatile situation, emphasizing the need for Israel to counter Turkish influence in Jerusalem and maintain pressure on Hezbollah.

Hacohen asserted that Hezbollah has suffered a significant strategic defeat, losing territorial control, key personnel, and strategic assets along the Israeli border. He noted that the organization's current leadership is struggling to fill the void left by Hassan Nasrallah, and growing frustration among Lebanese citizens over the heavy cost of Hezbollah's involvement in conflicts not directly related to Lebanon is palpable. While the Lebanese government attempts to establish a new order, Hacohen stressed that the way Iran emerges from its current conflicts will directly shape Hezbollah's future strength and policies. He urged Israel to maintain its initiative, prevent rearmament, and continue applying pressure.

Regarding Turkey, Hacohen described it as a dominant regional power adept at leveraging global competition and regional shifts. He pointed to Turkey's increasing influence in Syria following the decline of Iranian military presence there, viewing it as part of Erdoğan's broader neo-Ottoman vision to restore Turkey's status as a major regional power. This ambition is further evidenced by agreements like the Mecca Defense Pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and Turkey's maritime aspirations in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Hacohen highlighted Erdoğan's animosity towards Israel and his support for Hamas, which continues to host Hamas leadership and accuse Israel of war crimes. However, he distinguished Turkey from Iran, noting its NATO membership, Erdoğan's relationship with former US President Trump, and the fact that Israeli-Turkish relations, despite deep crises, are not entirely severed. Hacohen suggested Israel's clear communication of red lines in Syria and its deepening security ties with Greece and Cyprus, as well as its expansion into Africa, are appropriate responses. He also advocated for an international move to declare the global Muslim Brotherhood an illegal organization and for Israel to systematically work to curtail Turkish operations in and concerning Jerusalem.