Iran Weighs New Supreme Leader Amidst Internal Strife and Health Concerns

Reports suggest that factions within Iran are discussing the potential replacement of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country's next Supreme Leader. This transition, according to IranWire, citing sources close to various regime factions, could occur after the conclusion of any conflict with the United States and Israel and the signing of a peace agreement. Dissatisfaction is reportedly growing among political elites and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, with some viewing Khamenei's continued leadership as undesirable.

Sources point to the Supreme Leader's health issues as a contributing factor, alongside a trend toward decentralizing governance and intensifying internal power struggles. A former IRGC member noted that unlike his father, who exercised total control, Mojtaba Khamenei's directives are now filtered through intermediaries, leading to uncertainty and reduced trust among officials. This has resulted in the formation of smaller cliques based on personal or familial ties.

Conversely, some IRGC commanders, Basij representatives, and individuals with economic ties to these entities reportedly favor Mojtaba Khamenei remaining in power. These groups, according to an IranWire source, benefit from continued conflict and see an absent strong leader as advantageous for their interests.

Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly since the death of his father, Ali Khamenei, in February. His current condition and whereabouts remain unknown. In late August, The Atlantic reported, citing Iranian officials, that Mojtaba Khamenei was believed to be either dead or in a state of clinical death since early August. Additionally, in early September, investigative reports indicated that two luxury apartments in London, allegedly owned by Mojtaba Khamenei, were put up for sale.