Hamas Leader Sinwar's Goal Was to Derail US-Saudi Deal, Not Just Prisoner Exchange

Multiple reports, including those from "The Atlantic" and "The Wall Street Journal," highlight numerous prior warnings given to Israel about the impending October 7th attack, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denies knowledge of. The article suggests that beyond intelligence failures, a strategic miscalculation occurred, as Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's warnings to Israel, allegedly via a mediator named Soufian Abu Zaida, were not solely about a prisoner exchange.

Instead, the primary motivation behind the attack appears to have been to disrupt the potential U.S.-Saudi mega-deal, which included normalization with Israel. This deal was seen as a significant strategic threat by the Iran-Hamas-Hezbollah axis. The warnings, some of which reached Egypt and the UAE, were reportedly taken more seriously by these nations than by Israel, which seemed to underestimate the threat.

Sinwar's ideology, rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood's "destruction ideology," has historically embraced immense sacrifice. He had previously stated a willingness to sacrifice 100,000 Gazans and vowed to "uproot the hearts of Israelis." This destructive mindset, fueled by a desire to prevent normalization, drove the Hamas leadership.

Despite a flourishing Gaza prior to the attack, with many Palestinians working in Israel and a seemingly vibrant economy, Hamas's strategic objective was not economic prosperity but the disruption of regional stability. Documents seized by the IDF and reports from "The Wall Street Journal" indicate Hamas's intention to torpedo the Israel-Saudi deal.

The article criticizes Israel's repeated failure to understand its enemies, arguing that destruction and ruin do not deter groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran. It suggests that current Israeli leadership, including Netanyahu and Minister Israel Katz, may still be trapped in a flawed strategic conception, failing to grasp the enemy's core motivations.