Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah's Post-Beepers Miscalculation Revealed

New details have emerged regarding the Israeli operation that led to the dramatic assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, two years after the event. Two key figures involved, Major G., head of the Lebanon target desk at Military Intelligence (Aman) at the time, and Major (res.) R., operations officer for the elimination cell in the Air Force, shared insights into the decade-long intelligence gathering and the final moments of the operation. They described how Nasrallah operated under a "deep misconception" that he was secure, even after the "beepers incident" which caused chaos within Hezbollah.

Major G. explained that his team meticulously studied Nasrallah's daily routines for two years prior to the strike, gathering "intimate and precise details" about his life. This intelligence indicated that Nasrallah felt secure, particularly after October 7th, believing Israeli focus was solely on Gaza. He continued his routine movements, albeit with secrecy, but not with the urgency of full wartime. Major G. noted Nasrallah's dual role of maintaining secrecy while also being publicly involved in decision-making regarding Hezbollah's military buildup and budget.

The "beepers incident," where thousands of Hezbollah operatives' pagers detonated simultaneously, was a turning point. According to Major R., this event "shook them regarding everything," from communication devices to personnel, forcing a "relearning of everything they had done until then." Despite this major blow, Nasrallah remained in his known location, which the intelligence team assessed was due to an underestimation of the situation and a belief that Israel would not "go all the way." They believed he saw the beeper attack and the elimination of senior figures as mere exchanges of blows, not a prelude to full-scale war.

The intelligence control was described as "absolute," with no "blackout windows" regarding Nasrallah's whereabouts. As new intelligence emerged indicating he might flee, the team aggressively pushed decision-makers for approval of the strike. Major G. emphasized the optimal conditions for the strike, noting that any delay could have allowed Nasrallah to move to an unknown location. He highlighted the significant effort to ensure the decision reached the Prime Minister for timely approval.

Regarding collateral damage, strict protocols were followed, with intelligence detailing the number of people in each room. The actual collateral damage was significantly lower than estimated, with around 30 uninvolved individuals harmed in the entire operation. Major R. stated that Hezbollah is "not the same" without Nasrallah, its capabilities and influence drastically reduced, and warned that any leader aiming to destroy Israel will be targeted, including Nasrallah's successor, Naim Qassem.