Hezbollah Faces New Reality Two Years After Nasrallah Assassination

Two years after a series of Israeli strikes in September 2024, including the assassination of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah is navigating a significantly altered military and political landscape. The group suffered the loss of key leaders, damage to its military infrastructure and supply lines, and increased domestic and international pressure to consolidate arms within the Lebanese state. The escalation began with explosions targeting Hezbollah communication devices on September 17, 2024, followed by wireless device explosions the next day. The commander of the Radwan force, Ibrahim Aqil, was assassinated on September 20, preceding a broad Israeli aerial campaign launched on September 23. Nasrallah himself was killed on September 27, and his successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also assassinated in October.

The military confrontation concluded with a ceasefire in November 2024, but Hezbollah has since faced mounting challenges. These include disrupted supply routes through Syria, pressure on its military presence, and a shifting Lebanese political scene with the election of Joseph Aoun as president in January 2025. Ghaleb Abu Zeineb, a member of Hezbollah's political council, described September 2024 as a "turning point," stating the leadership conducted an internal review to address vulnerabilities exploited by Israel. He asserted that despite losing Nasrallah and other commanders, the party maintained its organizational and social cohesion, with Na'im Qassem and other leaders filling the void.

Conversely, retired Brigadier General Hisham Jaber characterized the September events as "catastrophic" for Hezbollah. He criticized the party's failure to alter its behavior after the communication device bombings and its continued exposure of leaders to Israeli targeting. Jaber also argued that Hezbollah's involvement in supporting Gaza harmed both the party and Lebanon, advocating for a review of its military doctrine and learning from past mistakes.

Hezbollah currently faces concurrent pressures: ongoing Israeli operations in southern Lebanon, Israeli forces positioned within southern areas, Lebanese demands for state control over weaponry, and U.S. pressure to redefine Hezbollah's military and political role. Abu Zeineb stated that any discussion regarding the future of Hezbollah's arms is contingent on a halt to Israeli attacks and an Israeli withdrawal from areas the party considers occupied. Jaber suggested that a potential Iran-U.S. settlement could influence Hezbollah's arms future, provided guarantees are in place to prevent targeting of its base.

Two years post-Nasrallah's assassination, the central question remains Hezbollah's capacity to adapt to leadership losses, rebuild its capabilities, and manage increasing internal pressure to centralize military power. While Hezbollah maintains it retains its organizational and military strength, its position within Lebanon is increasingly tied to the ongoing confrontation with Israel and intertwined regional and domestic developments.