Two Years After Nasrallah's Killing, Hezbollah's Leadership and Structure Severely Weakened

Two years after the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the organization has suffered significant blows to its leadership, military structures, and command system, according to a Maariv report. Nasrallah was killed on September 27, 2024, in a strike on an underground complex in Dahieh, Beirut. A retired IDF Colonel, who led target selection for the Air Force's "Nachal Binyamin" unit, stated that 83 bombs were dropped during the operation. He also revealed that similar firepower was later used against Hashem Safieddine, who was considered Nasrallah's successor but was also killed.

The erosion of Hezbollah's system began months before Nasrallah's death, with Israel systematically eliminating commanders and disrupting the organization's structures. Lebanese sources and Shiite clerics told Asharq Al-Awsat that these targeted killings isolated Nasrallah, with each eliminated field commander being described as Nasrallah "losing an eye that helped him see clearly." Key commanders like Taleb Abdullah, Ibrahim Aqil, and Wissam al-Tawil possessed vast amounts of information on weapons, local contacts, operational plans, and networks built over years. The article suggests that the secrecy that once protected Hezbollah became a vulnerability, as successors often did not inherit the full scope of information, leading to a loss of established networks.

Sources described a state of chaos and improvisation within Hezbollah's operational headquarters, with the organization acting out of panic and suspicion rather than a clear command system. Despite these challenges, Nasrallah reportedly believed Hezbollah's deterrence capabilities were sufficient to prevent a full-scale war with Israel, even resisting calls from commanders to escalate. His perspective reportedly shifted after the killings of Saleh al-Arouri and Wissam al-Tawil in early 2024, leading to increased suspicion and internal isolation.

A pivotal moment cited was the pager incident in June, which deeply affected Nasrallah. According to Wafiq Safa, a close associate, Nasrallah was visibly shaken by the casualties and the scale of the intelligence operation, reportedly losing his appetite and becoming withdrawn. Safa noted, "He was no longer the same Hassan Nasrallah." The report also debunks the myth of Nasrallah constantly hiding in bunkers, stating that he sometimes resided in a penthouse and had multiple safe locations known to Israeli intelligence.

Preparations for Nasrallah's killing involved not only the strike itself but also preventing rescue efforts. The retired colonel estimated that professional rescue teams would need six hours to reach victims under rubble, and aimed to prevent any approach for at least 12 hours to ensure death from the strike, blood loss, or suffocation. Following the strike, attempts to approach the site were met with attacks on bulldozers.

After Nasrallah's death, his cousin Hashem Safieddine, considered a likely successor, was also killed. Naim Kassem has since taken over as leader, but Israeli security assessments suggest he is ill-equipped to fill Nasrallah's role, leading Hezbollah with significantly diminished capabilities. The organization has lost a substantial portion of its operational personnel and command structure, with estimates suggesting one-third to half of its operatives have been neutralized. The recent loss of the strategic "Badr" complex, a tunnel system, further erodes Hezbollah's military depth. Additionally, Israeli assessments indicate reduced support from Iran and a weakening political environment, with the Lebanese government engaging in direct talks with Israel and Syria facing its own leadership changes.