Study Disputes Cost of Haredi Draft Exemption

A new counter-study has challenged the widely reported economic cost of the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community's exemption from military service, claiming the figure is significantly lower than previously estimated. The original study by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) estimated the cost to the Israeli economy at approximately 14.9 billion shekels. However, a research initiative called 'Ha'emet' (The Truth), which aims to scrutinize data concerning the Haredi public, argues that the IDI's figures are inaccurate and inflated due to methodological errors.

The 'Ha'emet' study contends that a substantial portion of the IDI's estimate, 11.2 billion shekels, was attributed to a theoretical tax gap. This gap, the researchers argue, exists regardless of Haredi military service and stems from the general structure of employment and wages in Israel. Furthermore, the counter-study points out that 1.4 billion shekels were allocated to the non-service of Haredi women, a calculation deemed irrelevant as religiously observant women have been legally exempt from service since the state's inception.

Additional flaws identified include an incorrect calculation of theoretical taxation, which reportedly included minors and infants instead of focusing on household-level data. One of the researchers involved stated, "The era when every researcher invents data at will and slanders the Haredi society for their pleasure is over." He emphasized that while objective criticism of the Haredi community is valid, it must be based on factual data, not on "legends" designed to serve political agendas.

The debate over Haredi conscription remains a central issue in Israeli public and political discourse, with economic implications being a key point of contention. This new research suggests that the economic arguments used in the debate may need re-evaluation.