Fact Checkers Correct Claim on Cost of Haredi Draft Evasion

An Israeli fact-checking organization, HaMishroqit, has corrected its previous assessment of a statement made by opposition leader Yair Lapid regarding the financial cost of the ultra-Orthodox community's exemption from military service. Initially, HaMishroqit had rated Lapid's claim that every working family pays NIS 1,700 monthly for this exemption as 'correct,' based on their own calculation of NIS 1,420 per month. However, following a request for review by MK Yitzhak Pindrus, the organization discovered significant errors in its methodology.

The primary mistake was that the initial calculation of NIS 14.9 billion, derived from a study by the Israel Democracy Institute, included not only the costs associated with draft evasion but also the economic impact of the Haredi community's lower labor force participation. Furthermore, the cost was incorrectly distributed among only the top four deciles of non-Haredi Jewish households, rather than all working families as Lapid's statement implied.

Upon re-evaluation with researchers from the Israel Democracy Institute, HaMishroqit determined the direct annual cost of Haredi draft and service exemption to be NIS 3.8 billion. This figure includes NIS 1.4 billion attributed to women's exemptions, NIS 1.9 billion from men's evasion, and NIS 500 million from non-participation in reserve duty.

Dividing this NIS 3.8 billion by the approximately 2.2 million working families in Israel (defined as households with at least one earner) results in a monthly cost of approximately NIS 144 per family. This revised figure is roughly ten times lower than the initial calculation and the claim made by Lapid.

HaMishroqit has apologized for the error and thanked MK Pindrus for bringing the inaccuracies to their attention, changing the rating of Lapid's original statement to 'incorrect.' Lapid himself had not provided substantiation for his NIS 1,700 figure when initially approached.