New Political Alliance Between Handel and Zelicha Shows Mixed Poll Results

The joint political venture between Yoaz Handel's "Reservists Party" and Professor Yaron Zelicha's "Economic Party" is beginning to show varied results in Israeli opinion polls. Since the announcement of their collaboration, the unified list has garnered four Knesset seats in some surveys, while others place it below the electoral threshold. Immediately after the merger was declared, a Channel 12 poll awarded the new party four mandates, indicating Knesset entry. However, subsequent polls have shown fluctuating support, with the list hovering around the electoral threshold, and significant discrepancies between different surveys.

The party's strategists believe the current four-mandate projection underestimates their potential voter base. Internal party surveys and data from a "Israel Hayom" poll suggest that if voters' concerns about crossing the electoral threshold are mitigated, the list could potentially reach eight seats. This potential, however, is not yet a concrete voting intention, and some of the data relies on internal polling. Bridging this gap between potential support and actual votes is now the central focus of Handel and Zelicha's campaign.

The challenge of crossing the electoral threshold, which plagued both parties when they ran separately, was a primary motivation for their union. The merger aimed to consolidate their support bases and improve their chances of entering the Knesset as a single entity. Zelicha continues to champion economic issues such as the cost of living and market concentration, while Handel contributes his political and security experience. The party is attempting to position itself by integrating economic concerns with national and security matters.

Despite these efforts, the polling landscape remains inconsistent. A "Maariv" poll published post-merger showed the list with only 3% support, falling short of the threshold, and a Channel 14 poll placed them at 2.1%. This disparity was starkly highlighted recently when two polls released on the same evening presented vastly different outcomes: Channel 13 predicted four mandates for the list, whereas Channel 14 indicated 2.2%, leaving them outside the Knesset.

The number of seats the party might secure, should it overcome the electoral threshold, could also significantly impact the political bloc map. In a scenario where no single bloc achieves a majority to form a government, a list not fully aligned with either major bloc could gain leverage in coalition negotiations. The party is using this possibility to counter the fear of failing to cross the threshold, arguing that while there's a risk in voting for a list near the threshold, there's also potential for it to enter the Knesset and influence the next government's composition. The immediate test for the Handel-Zelicha list is whether it can consistently maintain support above the electoral threshold and convert its perceived potential into actual Knesset seats.