Syria's Loss of Golan Heights Permanent, Analyst Argues

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's rhetoric at the UN regarding Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights is futile, according to an opinion piece by Ibrahim Musa in 'The Voice of the Arabs.' Musa contends that the territory is irrevocably lost to Syria not because of Israeli occupation, but because the local population, primarily Druze, no longer desires Syrian rule.

Musa asserts that a referendum today would see the majority of Golan Druze vote to remain part of Israel. Unlike in the past under his father, Hafez al-Assad, when Golan Druze identified as Syrian and refused Israeli citizenship, the ongoing Syrian civil war and the country's instability have shifted their allegiance. The Druze now feel more secure and see better prospects in Israel, enjoying equal rights, robust institutions, and a higher standard of living, leading many to acquire Israeli citizenship.

The author dismisses the possibility of Syria reclaiming the Golan militarily, citing Israel's fortified positions, advanced air force, and sophisticated military infrastructure. He argues that for Syria to build a comparable military, it would require decades of sustained economic growth, political stability, and uninterrupted development of military capabilities, a scenario he deems unrealistic given the volatile Middle East.

Musa suggests Damascus should focus on regaining territories it controlled before its collapse, such as parts of the Golan not claimed by Israel and the Suwayda province, which does not border Israel. This, he believes, is only achievable through peace negotiations, which would likely require Syria to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the majority of the Golan Heights, approximately 700 square kilometers.

He posits that any negotiation would be about the terms of recognition, possibly in exchange for water technology, as Israel, perceiving Syria's weakness, would not concede on sovereignty. Musa also notes that Israel's post-October 7th policy is to preemptively neutralize military threats, making any attempt by Syria to rearm without normalization unlikely to succeed, with no international actor willing or able to intervene.