Sinwar's 'Earthquake' Warning Revealed by Former Hamas Official

A former Hamas official, Soufian Abu Zaida, has revealed a note dictated by Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, just 22 days before the October 7th attacks. According to Abu Zaida, Sinwar instructed him to deliver a message to the Israeli side, which he wrote down and later conveyed to Israel in both Hebrew and Arabic. The note, revealed on Thursday, stated, 'Let's put the cards on the table. An earthquake will occur.'

Sinwar's warning, as transcribed by Abu Zaida, reportedly said, 'Before the end of September, we will put the cards on the table. An earthquake will occur regarding the negotiation issue, and they (the Israelis) must prepare for the emptying of the prisons.' This warning aligns with previous reports from September 2023, which indicated that Sinwar had stated Hamas would present something by the end of September that would cause an 'earthquake' and lead to the release of all prisoners.

Abu Zaida, a former Palestinian minister and released prisoner, was part of a back channel negotiating an prisoner exchange deal between Hamas and Israel. He claims the channel began in March 2022, with Sinwar's approval. The meeting where Sinwar dictated the note took place on September 14, 2023. Abu Zaida immediately relayed the message to Israeli officials, who contacted him within half an hour to confirm its authenticity. He subsequently met with senior Israeli security officials, including the head of the Southern Command and the head of the negotiation team, in Ashkelon the following morning.

During the meeting, Israeli officials inquired about the meaning of 'earthquake,' the 'cards' Sinwar intended to reveal, and Sinwar's demeanor. Abu Zaida stated Sinwar was completely calm. He explained that the back channel had been active since September 2022, experiencing periods of progress and setbacks. Sinwar's primary demands, as relayed by Abu Zaida, included the release of women, minors, Shalit deal prisoners, the elderly, and those who had served long sentences, framing it as a 'humanitarian deal.'

Abu Zaida also met with then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, conveying Hamas's position that Sinwar would not agree to a deal without addressing the long-serving prisoners and those convicted of killing Israelis. Israel, in parallel, discussed potential easing of restrictions on Gaza, including allowing workers in and rehabilitating infrastructure. The September 14 meeting was the last in this negotiation channel. Abu Zaida returned to Gaza on October 5, planning another meeting with Sinwar for October 8, just 22 days before the Hamas attack.