Former Israeli Security Chief Warns of Turkish Military Threat Exceeding Iran's
Former National Security Council head Giora Eiland has cautioned that Turkey could pose a more significant military threat to Israel than Iran, with Syria being a potential flashpoint for conflict. Eiland, a retired Major General, stated that Turkey's military capabilities allow it to inflict damage on Israel that Iran cannot match. This risk is amplified by Turkey's expanding regional ambitions and its military presence in Syria.
Eiland elaborated that Turkey's aspirations for increased influence are long-standing but have been intensified under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, incorporating an Islamist ideology and efforts to establish a foothold in Syria, Libya, Somalia, and other nations. He identified a clash between Israel and Turkey on Syrian territory as a particularly dangerous scenario.
To mitigate this, Eiland suggested Israel should negotiate with Damascus, potentially offering withdrawal from occupied territories in exchange for guarantees that advanced Turkish weaponry will not be deployed in Syria. The interview also touched upon the failures leading up to the October 7th Hamas attack, with Eiland assigning approximately 75% of the blame to military leadership and 25-30% to the political echelon.
He revealed that intelligence possessed a detailed Hamas invasion plan a year and a half prior to the attack, yet the military maintained the assumption that Hamas was not interested in a large-scale war. Despite concerns about a major regional war emerging within the military leadership in the summer of 2023, and Eiland's own warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on August 16th about a potential existential conflict, these numerous warning signs were not synthesized into a cohesive picture.
Eiland also stressed the importance for Israel to clearly define objectives before launching any new military campaign, assessing the feasibility of achieving goals, the adversary's capacity to thwart them, and whether the expected outcome justifies the potential costs and losses.
