Iran Deal Seen as a Strategic Turning Point Against Israel

In an opinion column dated June 20, 2026, Alon Ben-David argues that this week may be remembered as the moment the strategic balance in the Middle East shifted sharply away from Israel and toward Iran. He says the new American-Iranian memorandum of understanding turns Iran into the region’s stronger and more influential power, while Israel, until now the main regional power backed by the United States, loses its ability to shape events. According to him, the deal redirects Arab states eastward toward Tehran and gives Iran both legitimacy and financial leverage.

Ben-David says the memorandum could add tens of billions of dollars to Iran this year alone. He estimates possible oil revenues of about $50 billion annually, says frozen Iranian assets worth an estimated $50 billion to $100 billion could be released, and notes uncertainty over whether Iran will also be allowed to collect transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz. He adds that the agreement effectively recognizes Iran’s right to enrich uranium on its soil, leaving more than 10 tons of enriched material in an unresolved status, and says that while a detailed nuclear agreement is supposed to be drafted within 60 days, the interim arrangement could last much longer.

He warns that, during this period, only Iran’s leadership will stand between the country and a nuclear bomb, and says a primitive first nuclear test is not implausible if talks drag on. He also says President Donald Trump has publicly accepted Iran’s right to a ballistic missile program, while discussion of Tehran’s support for Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad has faded. In his view, money gained under the deal will help rebuild those proxy forces.

Looking back at the 12-day war in June 2025, Ben-David says Israel set realistic goals, badly damaged Iran’s nuclear program and missile capabilities, and exposed the weakness of the Iranian regime, helping fuel protests in December 2025. But once Washington and Jerusalem made regime change the war’s aim and the regime survived, he says Iran will be remembered as having endured both a global superpower and the region’s strongest power. He concludes that the war also exposed U.S. weakness, that Israel cannot rely on force alone in Lebanon or Gaza, and that it must build new capabilities to deal with threats to shipping routes in the Red Sea and Mediterranean.